The Futures Foundation

     In fact, on closer inspection, Global Trends 2025 is at pains to point out that the gloomy futures it describes are not inevitable.  Like other futurists, it is bringing them to the attention of leaders and policy-makers so that they can make better decisions in the present. That’s what futurists do – explore the future to inform the choices we make in the present.  Or, as the National Intelligence Council puts it, “by laying out some of the alternative possibilities, we hope to help policymakers steer us toward positive solutions.”

    Of course reporters have deadlines, and stories need to be newsworthy.  Indeed, if it is the only way to win attention for what really matters, perhaps there is justification for this approach.  But as the threats multiply and loom, we also need to understand that this tradition is creating a dangerous feedback loop.  By concentrating on the negatives, media stories are creating another self-fulfilling prophecy (like those of the economic crisis) by inviting the anxiety and depression that have been identified as one of the future threats to society.  Instead, learning how to engage with the issues and work for change has been identified as the most effective therapy for anyone who is anxious about the future.

    This is where the Millennium Project’s State of the Future report excels.  Over the past twelve years, this annual report has synthesised contributions from more than 2,500 futurists, scholars, scientists and managers from around the world.  While it initially identified the major issues as challenges, it was quick to recognise that they are also opportunities.  And in this year’s report, the Millennium Project emphasises its confidence that we can address the challenges that the report describes, although it questions whether we can find the courage to do so or whether we will continue to retreat into denial and distraction.

    At present, “hopeless despair, blind confidence and ignorant indifference” are condemning future generations to hardship and possible annihilation, it says.

    Yet it emphasises that “Ours is the first generation with the means for many to know the world as a whole, identify global improvement systems, and seek to improve such systems. We are the first people to act via the Internet with like-minded individuals around the world. We have the ability to connect the right ideas to resources and people to help address our global and local challenges.”

    This is a unique time in history.  And it’s just as well, because global challenges need global strategies.

    “Climate change cannot be turned around without a global strategy. International organized crime cannot be stopped without a global strategy. Individuals creating designer diseases and causing massive deaths cannot be stopped without a global strategy. It is time for global strategic systems to be upgraded to help make important transitions such as from freshwater agriculture to saltwater agriculture, from gasoline cars to electric cars, from animal production to animal-less meat production, and from weapons expenditures to increased environment and health expenditures.”

    The project, which is auspiced by the Futurs Foundation in Australia, lists the 15 top challenges facing the world and outlines strategies that can address them successfully (see below).  However it notes that this success calls for global cooperation, and the willingness of people everywhere to set aside trivia and face the problems.

    “Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing water-food-energy supply per person, desertification and increasing migrations due to political, environmental and economic conditions.

    “However, advances in science, technology, education, economics and management seem capable of making the world work far better than it does today.”

    “We can do it, but will we?” asks the report.  

    So far this century we have been all too human, from the individual pursuit of instant gratification in our entertainment and consumer society, to the blind commitment of  organizations to increasing short-term corporate profits at terrible long-term cost to the community.  As for government, few people seem to believe that our leaders are really putting the nation’s – or the planet’s - needs ahead of their own political aspirations.

    It’s time to grow up.  If we want our children and theirs to enjoy a world fit to live in, we must shake off these distractions and get on with the job.

 ______________________

THE  GLOBAL  CHALLENGES

The Millennium Project has been exploring the world’s greatest challenges and publishing its annual State of the Future report since 1996.  Its 2008 review of the 15 top challenges is summarised below.  The report notes that there is greater consensus among its thousands of expert participants about the global situation as expressed in these Challenges – and the actions to address them – than is evident in the news media.  The full report can be viewed at www.stateofthefuture.org.


1.    SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Challenges:  CO2 emissions are increasing faster, and the world is warming faster, than the IPCC estimated. Targets like the EU’s 550ppm may be not be enough to prevent effects beyond human control: some experts suggest 350 ppm. Glacial melting has doubled over the past two years, and 2007 was the second hottest year on record next to 2005. Yet it is estimated that industrial countries subsidise fossil fuels with $US200bn a year. The nuclear industry is gaining momentum, although the risk of accidents, waste management and terrorist usage are not well addressed. The value of intact ecosystems far outweighs the cost of protecting them, but human consumption is 25% more than nature’s capacity to regenerate. Most of the 50m tonnes of e-waste produced annually is dumped in developing countries and environmental damage inflicted by the rich nations is more than the total Third World debt of $US1.8 trillion. One in four mammals, one in eight birds, one third of all amphibians and 70% of the world’s assessed plants are in jeopardy.

Opportunities:  It is time for a global strategy to address climate change with a ten-year goal that might support electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon sequestration, solar power satellites, animal protein without animals, enhanced hot-rock geothermal energy, urban systems ecology and a global climate change collective intelligence to keep track of it all. These in addition to the usual suggestions for a carbon tax, carbon cap and trading, conservation and recycling, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies and co-generation and switching government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy.  The UN estimates developing countries will need $US100bn annually to finance climate change mitigation. Targeted taxes and massive public education will help.

2.    CLEAN WATER

Challenges:  Today 700m people face water scarcity (less than 1,000 cubic metres per person per year), which could grow to 3 billion by 2025 due to climate change, population growth and increasing demand. Water stress (1,000 to 1,700 cubic metres) could affect half the countries by 2025 and 75% of the world’s population by 2050. Water tables are falling on every continent: 40% of humanity depends on international watersheds; one in ten of the world’s major rivers fail to reach the sea for part of each year; agricultural land is becoming brackish; groundwater aquifers are being polluted; and urbanization is increasing demand on aging water infrastructures faster than systems can supply. Water withdrawals from lakes and rivers have doubled in the last 40 years. Agriculture, especially meat production, accounts for 70% of human usage of fresh water.  About 80% of diseases in the developing world are water-related: 1.8m die every year from diarrhoea, of whom 90% are children under five. About 2.6bn people lack adequate sanitation. Without major changes, future conflicts over water are inevitable.

Opportunities:  The UN declared 2008 the international year of sanitation. Meeting its MDG goal would cost $US38bn and yield $US347bn in benefits. Breakthroughs in desalination, like pressurization of seawater to produce vapour jets, filtration via carbon nanotubes, and reverse osmosis are needed plus less costly pollution treatment. There are some 15,000 desalination plants and 75 more major developments under way.  Future demand for fresh water could be reduced by saltwater agriculture on coastlines, producing meat from stem cells and increasing vegetarianism. We need an integrated global water strategy and management system to apply the lessons learned from producing more food with less water via drip irrigation and precision agriculture, rainwater collection and irrigation, watershed management, water pricing and replication of successful projects around the world.  Access to clean water and basic sanitation should become human rights.

3.    POPULATION AND RESOURCES

Challenges:  The UN expects our population of 6.7bn to reach 9.2bn by 2050, then peak at 9.8bn and fall to 5.5bn by 2100.  Scientific breakthroughs may change these estimates but overall the population is ageing. A quarter of the world (except in Africa) will be over 60 in 2050. Some 37 countries face food crises. Cereal prices are up 129% since 2006. Food production has to increase 50% by 2013 and double in 30 years. Over 50% of people live in urban areas: by 2030 probably 80%.  The 1bn people living in slums today could double in that time. About 385m people are malnourished and 25% of children worldwide have protein-energy malnutrition which reduces cerebral development  Some 40% of agricultural land is moderately degraded, 9% highly degraded. A quarter of all fish stocks are over-harvested: 80% cannot withstand increased pressure. Agriculture needs 60% more water to feed 2bn more people by 2030, even as urban water needs increase. With insufficient nutrition, shelter, water and sanitation, increased migrations, conflicts and disease seem inevitable. Climate change and monocultures undermine biodiversity which is critical for agriculture.

Opportunities:  New ways of working will reduce the economic burden on young people as the population ages. New agricultural approaches will be needed such as production of meat without growing animals, better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management; genetic engineering for higher-yielding crops; precision agriculture and aquaculture; drought-tolerant crop varieties; and saltwater agriculture on coastlines to produce food for humans and animals, biofuels and pulp for the paper industry, and to absorb CO2, to reduce the drain on freshwater agriculture and land and to increase employment.  Massive efforts are required to maintain fertile cropland. Rural populations are expected to shrink after 2015, freeing land for agriculture. ICT continues to match needs and resources worldwide and nanotech will help reduce material use per unit of output while increasing quality.

4.    DEMOCRATIZATION

Challenges:  Ideas of democracy differ globally but it is generally accepted as a relationship between a responsible citizenry and a responsive government that encourages participation and guarantees basic rights. Democracy and freedom declined over the last two years in one fifth of the world’s countries. Four times as many countries showed declines as improved, and press freedom continued a six-year negative trend with increased intimidation of journalists and increasing control of media by a few in business and government. Workplace discrimination remains common and in spite of some progress on gender and race, discrimination based on age, sexual orientation and disability is increasing.

Opportunities:  The longer-term trend is positive with the number of free countries growing from 43 to 90 over the past 30 years, covering 46% of global population. Countries partly free grew from 48 to 60, but 36% of world population lives in 43 countries with authoritarian regimes. Democratic forces will have to work harder to make sure that the short-term reversals do not stop the long-term trend of democratisation. Positive change includes growth of civil society, media access, economic stability, citizen participation, transparent judicial systems, e-government, increasing literacy, improved governance assessment, international independence and a new global consciousness. Elements of global governance such as ISOs, international treaties, multilateral organizations and self-organising bodies on the Internet are also augmenting democratic emergence. International protocols are needed to help failed states or regions. New ways are needed to counter information manipulation and increased freedom of transmission. Organized crime, methods to tamper with election results, information warfare and the potential of individuals to make and use weapons should be seriously addressed.

5.    LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES

Challenges:  Various major global crises have focused international attention on creating global long-term and short-term strategies. The food crisis, the US sub-prime loan crisis and Arctic ice melts demonstrate the need for improved global long-term perspectives and global systems for resilience. We need the capacity to anticipate, respond and recover from disasters such as tsunamis, financial crashes, pandemics, conflicts, prolonged electric or Internet outages and massive migrations due to water shortages.

Opportunities:  National integrated information systems can scan for change, identify and assess expert judgements in real time. They could synthesise futures research from departments, calculate a national State of the Future Index and publish State of the Future Reports. They could be connected with each other and with UN agencies to share best practice, compare research and verify assumptions. Decision-makers should be trained in futures research. National legislatures could establish “committees for the future”, as Finland has. National foresight studies should be regularly updated and improved, and interact with other national programs. Budgets could allocate funds to rolling 5-10 year strategies and scenarios. Communication and advertising companies have a role in sensitising the public to the long-term, to influence electoral behaviour. Universities should foster the convergence of disciplines and teach future research and synthesis as well as analysis. Long-range goals like landing on the moon or eradicating smallpox can be attained.

6.    GLOBAL CONVERGENCE OF IT

Challenges:  The OECD has forecast that Internet addresses that identify devices connected to the Net will be used up in three years. Multimedia growth could triple in three years, slowing everything down until infrastructures are upgraded. Demand and data privacy issues are increasing. Cybercrime is replacing spam as a thriving international business, with business losses estimated at 8-10% of revenues. The Web is now the major recruitment and training tool for violent extremists. Fundamental rethinking will be needed to counter future forms of information warfare.

Opportunities: The Internet is already the most powerful force for globalization, democratization, economic growth and education in history. There are now more Internet users in China than in the US. About 1.4 bn people (21% of world population) are connected and 3.3 bn mobile phones are active. The Internet and mobile phones are merging. Although the digital divide continues to close, special efforts are needed to lower cost, increase reliability and improve educational and business usage.  Wireless Internet bases are arriving in remote villages, cell phones with Internet are reaching the lowest income groups and new business models are connecting the poorest 2 bn people to the evolving nervous system of civilization.  Opportunities are immense and are detailed in the State of the Future Report.

7.    RICH-POOR GAP

Challenges:  The world economy grew 4.9% in 2007 to $US5 trn. Per capita income increased nearly 4%. At this rate poverty could be cut by more than half by 2015 except for sub-Saharan Africa. Families of about 487 m workers live on less than $1 per person per day and 1.3 bn -- 43.5% of all workers -- have less than $2 per day. Economic inequality has also increased within most countries. About 30% of the developing world is unemployed or underemployed. International trade is growing fast. High tech and low wages in China and India will make it hard for other countries to compete so developing countries need to rethink export-led growth strategies.

Opportunities:  Improved agricultural and industrial productivity investments, technical assistance to leapfrog into new activities via tele-education and tele-work should be coupled with microcredit mechanisms for people to seek markets instead of jobs. The WTO has agreed to eliminate agriculture export subsidies by 2014: this with improved fair trade and other factors is expected to boost growth in developing countries. Half the $200m in carbon emissions trading income should go to the developing world.  Reducing corruption and increasing freedom correlates with improved economic development which puts emphasis on ethical market economies with honest judicial systems and political stability. Market economy abuses and corruption by companies and governments should be intensively prosecuted.

8.    HEALTH ISSUES

Challenges:  The global food crisis, climate change and pandemic influenza are the main threats to human health listed by WHO. More than 1100 epidemics have been verified in the last five years, 39 new infectious diseases have been discovered since the 1960s and we now face 20 drug-resistant diseases. Old diseases have reappeared, including cholera, yellow fever, plague, dengue fever and diphtheria. Massive urbanization and concentrated livestock production could trigger new pandemics. Climate change is altering insect and disease patterns. Other problems may come from synthetic bacteria from gene laboratories and unknown nano-organisms. We need 4m health workers and the shortage is growing. People live longer, health care costs are increasing. For the first time in history, chronic conditions such as heart disease and stroke kill more people than infectious diseases, but 30% of all deaths are still caused by infectious diseases and mutations in avian flu or other communicable diseases could increase this. Although hepatitis B has infected more than 2bn people and malaria kills more than 1m a year, HIV/AIDS is still the biggest killer in sub-
Saharan Africa and its impact is growing in Eastern Europe and Asia.

Opportunities:  New cases of HIV peaked over 3m and were down to 2.5m p.a. by 07. Deaths from AIDS dropped from 2.9m in 06 to 2.1m in 07. More people are receiving antiretroviral therapy and costs are dropping (with help from Glaxo and the Clinton Foundation). New vaccines and treatments are on trial and some show promise. Male circumcision may reduce infection by 50 per cent. A two-dose vaccine has shown positive effects against H5N1 avian flu virus. Meanwhile, anti-terrorism R&D has increased, to improve bio-sensors, and vaccines to boost the immune system, which could be placed around the world like fire extinguishers. Tele-medicine, self-diagnosis via biochip sensors and online expert systems also offer promise. The best ways to address infectious diseases are early detection, accurate reporting, prompt isolation, transparency of information, rapid diagnostics, appropriate treatment and growing global awareness. The SHO’s eHealth systems, new regulations, immunization programs and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network are responding to this challenge. Scientists are working to develop a genetically modified mosquito that would not carry the malaria parasite. Better trade security and new approaches to Asian poultry live-market businesses are needed. Viruses in animals are being mapped in Africa, China and South Asia to divert epidemics before they reach humans. Future uses of genetic data, software and nanotechnology will detect and treat disease. Meanwhile increased investment into water, sanitation, health education and hand washing is the most cost-effective way to reduce communicable disease.

9.    CAPACITY TO DECIDE

Challenges:  Many of the world’s decision-making processes are inefficient, slow, and ill informed, especially with increasing complexity, globalization, and the acceleration of change. More-open systems, democratization, and interactive media are involving more people in decisionmaking, which further increases complexity—making continuous modifications of decisions likely. The number and intricacy of choices seem to be growing beyond our abilities to analyze and make decisions. Ubiquitous computing will increase the number of decisions per day, constantly changing schedules and priorities.  If Moore’s Law continues much decisionmaking can be automated. Meanwhile, too much time is wasted going through useless information.

Opportunities: Decisionmaking will be augmented by sensors embedded in products, buildings, and in living bodies. Rapid collection and assessment of many judgments via on-line software can support decisionmaking. Judgemental information was often the view of individuals or small groups: now decisionmaking benefits from open systems – transparent and participative. Issue-tracking is improving with Web 2.0 tools. Advances in cognitive neuroscience and brain-computer interface technologies should improve decision-support systems. Today’s global challenges call for common platforms  for transinstitutional decisionmaking and implementation. Training programs for decisionmakers should bring together research on why irrational decisions are made, lessons of history, futures research methods, forecasting, cognitive science, prediction markets, data reliability, utilization of statistics, conventional decision support methods, collective intelligence systems, ethics, goal seeking, risk, the role of leadership, transparency, accountability, and participatory decisionmaking with new decision support software, e-government, and more.

10.    PEACE AND CONFLICT

Challenges: Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to increasing oil and food prices, decreasing water, food, and energy supplies per person, climate change, and increasing migrations due to political, environmental and economic conditions. These can trigger complex interactions of old ethnic and religious conflicts, civil unrest, terrorism, and crime, making conventional industrial-age military force less effective. As many countries affected by conflict return to war within five years of a cease-fire, more serious efforts are required to deconstruct the structures of violence and establish structures of peace. By mid-2008 there were 14 wars (conflicts with 1,000 or more deaths)—one fewer than in 2007. Total military expenditures are about $1.3 trillion per year. There are an estimated 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world, approximately 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium, and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce nuclear weapons. Future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing and organized crime’s access to nuclear materials give extremists and individuals the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction—from biological weapons to low-level nuclear (“dirty”) bombs. Unauthorized use of nuclear or radioactive materials reports to IAEA averaged 150 per year between 2004 and 2007. Much of urban civilization depends on the Internet; hence, cyber weapons can also be considered a WMD deployable by an individual. The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, satellite surveillance, better access to resources, and the evolution of the UN (see www.un.org/peacemaker). However, setbacks include failing states, separatist movements, and decreases in press freedom.

Opportunities: In 2008, there were 160,000 peacekeepers from all sources, 88,000 UN uniformed personnel and 17,000 UN civilians. The vast majority of the world is living in peace, conflicts actually decreased over the past decade, cross-cultural dialogues are flourishing, and intra-state conflicts are increasingly being settled by international interventions. Early warning systems of governments and UN agencies could be better connected with NGOs and the media to help generate the political will to prevent or reduce conflicts. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for diversity, equal rights, common ethical values, and the oneness that underlies human diversity. It is less expensive and more effective to attack the root causes of unrest than to stop explosions of violence. Peace strategies without love, compassion, or spiritual outlooks are less likely to work, because intellectual or rational systems cannot overcome the emotional divisions that prevent unity and harmony. Counter-terrorism strategies should include many personal conversations with hardliner groups. Sanctions should target elite criminals rather than innocent populations. As well as ubiquitous sensors and security systems in urban environments, cognitive science could improve and connect education and mental health systems to detect and treat high-risk individuals. Advanced communications could be parachuted to local citizens so that local realities could be broadcast to the world. Backcasted peace scenarios should be created through participatory processes to show how peace is possible. The UN Security Council has received over 150 country reports on how to keep nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons out of the hands of terrorists and black marketers and how to improve international counterterrorism strategies. Networks of CDC-like centers to counter impacts of bioterrorism should be supported. Governments should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons, create tracking systems for potential bioweapons, establish an international audit system for each weapon, and increase the use of nonlethal weapons to reduce future revenge cycles.

11.    STATUS OF WOMEN

Challenges: The biggest war on earth today as measured by death and casualties is men attacking women, especially during armed conflicts. WHO reports that after diseases and hunger, violence against women is the greatest cause of death among women; one in five women will be a victim of rape or attempted rape in her lifetime. According to Plan International, childhood malnutrition has stunted development of an estimated 450 million women; unsafe abortions and birth complications are the leading causes of death for girls 15 to 19 in developing countries studied; and over 100 m girls, some as young as 12, are expected to marry over the next decade even though international treaties outlaw early marriages. About 80% of the 600,000–800,000 individuals trafficked each year are female, in the “largest slave trade in history.”

Many countries still make women second-class citizens and expose them to violence. Progress on women getting good jobs in politics and business and equal salaries has been slow. Women in legislatures have increased from 13.8% in 2000 to 18% in 2008. Women account for over 40% of the world’s work-force but earn only 25% of the income. Countries with smaller gender gaps tend to have better economies, healthier children, and superior welfare. The Scandinavian countries top both gender parity ratings and general quality of life indicators.

Opportunities:  Improving the political, economic, and educational status of women is one of the most cost-effective ways to address the other challenges. Peacebuilders in the field agree that women find common ground for peaceful resolutions more easily than men.  Women are cutting through cultural hierarchies via Internet access to information about health, finance, S&T, and education programs. Web sites like iknowpolitics.org help improve women’s political skills. Girls’ secondary school enrolments are now about 90% of boys’ enrolments. If current trends continue, however, UNICEF estimates that by 2015 over 50 countries will not achieve universal primary education and more than 90 countries will not reach gender parity in primary and secondary education. Establishing truth and reconciliation commissions on violence against women in armed conflict would help end it. Elementary and secondary school systems should consider teaching martial arts and other forms of self-defense in physical education classes for girls. Women should use their role in the family to more assertively nurture mutual respect between men and women. A global gender gap integrated index could show trends of the whole picture as well as trends disaggregated by age, education, political and economic participation, and health. Mechanisms are needed to monitor violence against females and recommend interventions. Legal rights of women (such as access to credit, land, technology, training, health care, child care, and judicial systems accessible to victims of sexual violence) are also needed, including educating men to fully respect women and working with the media to change harmful gender stereotypes that influence the choice of education, training or employment, participation in domestic and family duties, and representation in decisionmaking.


12.    TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME

Challenges:  Organized crime networks are growing, in the absence of an effective global counter-strategy. Illicit trade is estimated at more than $US1 trillion a year:
    counterfeiting and piracy          $533bn
    global drug trade             $322bn
    trade in environmental goods            $57bn
     human trafficking              $44bn
    consumer products              $60bn
    weapons trade                $105bn
Cybercrime is estimated to cost $US105bn. These figures exclude extortion and organized crime’s part of the $US1tr in bribes (World Bank estimate) or its part of the estimatd $US1.5-6.5tr in laundered money.  Thus total income could be more than $US2 trillion – about twice all the military budgets in the world.  Governments can be seen as a series of decision points: if these decisions can be bought and sold like heroin, democracy is an illusion. More than 27m people are held in slavery today (mostly in Asia), and UNICEF estimates 1.2m children are trafficked every year. Computer transfers of $2tr per day make tempting targets. Prescription drug abuse exceeds the use of conventional illegal drugs in many areas.

Opportunities: The OECD has made 40 recommendations to counter money laundering and the UN has called for national integrated strategies. Interpol’s 186 member countries can now access its central database. It is time for an international campaign to develop a global consensus for action. One Convention agreed by the UN and another by the Council of Europe are already in force: an addition to one of these or the International Criminal Court could establish a financial prosecution system to identify and establish priorities for prosecution. The Report outlines practical ways to do this. After initial funding, the system would be funded from frozen assets of convicted criminals.


13.    ENERGY

Challenges:  World energy demand could double in just 20 years. Without major technological changes, fossil fuels will provide 81% of primary energy demand by 2030. In that case, large scale carbon capture, storage and reuse should become a top priority. Oil demand is projected to grow 40% by 2030 requiring investment of $US22 trillion. Oil production may end in 40-70 years.  Only 3.4% of electricity is generated by renewable sources now; 1.6 bn people have no access to electricity and 2.4bn still rely on biomass. Meanwhile billions of gallons of petroleum are wasted in traffic jams around the world. A total of 438 nuclear reactors are operating today; 38 are under construction and more than 300 are proposed.  Nuclear is not a practical option: to eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels would take about 2,000 power plants at around $10bn per plant over 15 years and possibly 8,000 more to 2050. There is not enough U235 to supply them, so thorium breeder reactors would be needed, raising security concerns. About 1,000 coal plants, with production lives of 40 years but without CO2 capture, are now being planned around the world: environmental movements may try to close them down.

Opportunities:  Higher prices are making renewable sources more competitive: investment in renewable energy reached $US100bn in 2007 and could be $US7 trillion by 2030. More than 65 countries have renewable energy goals. Decarbonizing transport fuels should be a global priority. It is possible to make electric cars competitive, and others have been designed to run on compressed air. Massive saltwater irrigation of coasts can grow halophyte plants and algae to produce biofuels instead of using fresh water for biofuels (now 4% of global consumption and having catastrophic effects on food supply and prices).  Space solar power satellites may be able to provide sustainable abundant electricity. Drilling to hot rock could provide new sources of geothermal energy. Other innovations are accelerating, including concentrator photovoltaics, harvesting waste heat, hydrogen-producing photosynthesis, solar energy to produce hydrogen, microbial fuel cells as well as conservation measures. Solar farms can focus sunlight on towers; estimates for the potential of wind energy continue to increase but maintenance problems grow.  Alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles are arriving fast, from China, Denmark, Israel and are being planned in 30 other countries.

14.    SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Challenges:  The acceleration and globalization of science and technology are enormous – and so are the risks. Innovations and improved communications among scientists, and future synergies among nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science will fundamentally change the prospects for civilization. Industrial nations increased their R&D investment from 1.5% of GDP in 1980 to more than 2.2% today. The report summarises key areas but warns of dangers – for example, the need for environmental health impact studies for nanotech production and use.  Processes for deciding the allocation of resources to science and technology are inadequate: funding for weapons and other  purposes outstrips R&D for societal needs.  Future ethical issues need to be addressed.

Opportunities:  Research and development in science and technology offers endless opportunities for fundamental change and leaps in progress.  However it needs to be guided: an international science and technology organization could routinely connect global S&T knowledge for use in priority setting and legislation.  Currently the InterAcademy Panel, a worldwide network of 90 science academies, is working to increase access to information and cooperation around the world, and furthering basic science as necessary to replenish the pool of knowledge from which applied science draws its insights to improve the human condition. Heads of government science information portals are beginning to collaborate.

15.    GLOBAL ETHICS

Challenges:  Trivial news and entertainment floods our minds with unethical behaviour. More than $US1 trillion is paid each year in bribes while organized crime takes in over $US2 trillion. Some statistics show improvements, some continue to worsen. The speed of change is leading to ethical uncertainties: do we have the right to clone ourselves, or rewrite genetic codes, for example?  Experts speculate that we are headed for a “singularity” – a time of change beyond our imaginations. Meanwhile we must ask - is it ethical for one population to pay another for their right to pollute? Should information about how to make a bomb or cause an epidemic be posted on the internet? What is the balance between personal freedom and security? Public morality based on religious metaphysics is challenged daily by growing secularism, leaving many unsure about the moral basis for decision making. Unfortunately religions and ideologies that claim superiority give rise to “we-they” splits, yet spiritual education should grow in balance with humanity’s new technological powers.

Opportunities:  The UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights has stimulated more than 60 treaties to protect freedom and dignity. The evidence is now overwhelming that increasing government respect for human rights correlates with economic development, and unethical business practices lower stock prices, productivity and profits. Unethical and corrupt practices are being exposed via many channels. Global ethics are emerging thorough the evolution of ISO standards and treaties. The necessary moral will to act in collaboration across national, institutional, religious and ideological boundaries requires global ethics. The UN Convention against Corruption has started to take effect and the World Bank is helping strengthen national anticorruption units. More than 4,000 businesses in 120 countries have joined the UN’s Global Compact to use global ethics in decisionmaking. New technologies allow more people to do more harm than ever before – or more good. The healthy development of anyone should be the concern of everyone.