Futures Foundation

The future of cities

A report to the City of Melbourne from the futures foundation

1.    WHAT  CAN  WE  LEARN  FROM  THE  FUTURE?

The study of the future is a broad, diverse, and probably endless undertaking.   Professional futurists and their clients, all over the world, are engaged in this study because there are rich rewards to be won, though not necessarily of the material kind.

However, contrary to popular belief, these people are not seeking to know exactly what is going to happen in the future.  The future cannot be predicted.   No reputable futurist will make predictions except as speculation,  or where the future is already visible in the present (e.g. knowing how many teenagers there will be in Asia in 2010 -- because they've already been born).

Why, then, explore the future?   Futures work, in the Australian tradition, is about exploring alternative futures in order to be able to make informed choices as we create our own preferred futures.   It's also about reminding people that we can influence the future, rather than simply waiting for it to hit us.

Actively engaging with the future delivers benefits for individuals, for organisations, for communities, for societies.    In this report we focus on the future of community, but the principles scale to other levels.  Indeed, the distinctions between those different levels are blurring, like so many other distinctions, as we learn to see organisations as communities, communities as people, and so on.

THEORETICAL  UNDERPINNINGS:

Most people engaged in the world of action don't want to know all of the theoretical underpinnings of futures studies.    For them, it's enough to know that there are theoretical underpinnings and that the discipline of futures studies is increasingly being included in university curricula around the world.

Some of the core topic areas are from the humanities and include history, philosophy, values, ethics, anthropology, psychology and cross-cultural studies.    Others come from science, where growing attention is being given to the new physics, chaos and systems theory, and increasingly the study of living systems from which we draw new understandings of human systems.   Still more come from alternative ways of knowing that don't depend upon logic or reason:  comparative religions, the human potential movement, indigenous traditions and parapsychology.   

Finally, in the case of the Futures Foundation, all these inputs are examined through the filter provided by their relevance to the needs of organisations.   This means bringing them together with management and organisational theory (where the leading edge is already incorporating learnings from the new sciences as well as the humanities).   Special attention is given to issues of participation, communication, vision and leadership, values, culture change and the impact of the shift to new operating contexts.   

From this vast area of theoretical exploration emerge the three basic principles that the Futures Foundation uses to provide a framework for the exploration of the future by organisations:

1 addressing the challenge: understanding that we can play a role in shaping our own futures and that futures studies provides the tools to do so

2 understanding the context:   recognising the powerful influences of context, and thus the importance of monitoring changes in context

3 seeing the whole system:  recognising that organisations are systems within systems and that linear responses are not enough.

HOW  WE  DO  IT:

Futures tools and techniques range from research and data analysis through complex explorations of interdependent influences to participative processes used in organisations and communities.   They include audits and self-assessments;  visioning processes and retreats;  scenario development;  creating timelines; "backcasting" from a future "reality";  modelling;  cross-impact matrices;  Delphi studies; and of course environmental scanning.

But as Australian futurist Richard Slaughter points out, futures work is not just about tools and methodologies.   It's also about new concepts and language;  stories and metaphors; and creative imagination.   And we add uncommon sense and -- especially important when dealing with successful organisations -- an absence of certainty.    We can't learn when we think we know, and learning is the essence of preparing for the future.

The Australian tradition of futures places a great deal of importance on the participative processes because of their power to help participants learn -- to explore their values, challenge their assumptions and reshape their own worldviews.    Reframing our own perceptions is the first step toward the capacity for reframing the future.

The Futures Foundation is also deeply committed to sharing the concepts and tools of futures studies with its members and clients.     It does not seek to be brought in as a consultant to provide stick-on solutions, but prefers to act as a teacher and facilitator to guide a learning journey into the future.

WHAT  WE  DISCOVER:

Although reputable futurists do not claim to predict the future, they do scan and survey contextual changes to build an informed understanding of likely trends and directions.    From our own work, the Futures Foundation is in no doubt that dominant issues for organisations of all kinds will include:

•     in the physical context, environmental sustainability and the restoration of nature;  wholesale redesign of our methods of producing physical goods and materials

•     in the social context, recognition of the importance of relationships and their basis in reciprocity, trust and credibility;  redistribution of power and wealth

•     in the cultural context, a shift in understanding from industrial age concepts to holistic paradigms;  reframing of what we see as success.

UNDERSTANDING  COMPLEX  ADAPTIVE  SYSTEMS

In all these areas, there is much to learn from 20th century science, including the new physics, chaos and complexity, the mathematics of non-linear systems.   Of special interest is the study of life itself -- of complex, adaptive living systems -- which yields new ways of understanding the behaviour of complex adaptive living systems like human beings, like organisations, like communities. 

This has resulted in recognition of the need to respond differently to systems like these, to abandon mechanical ideas of control and causal relationships, and to embrace organic concepts that allow us to elicit new ways of working that suit today's world better than the old, and are more resilient to change.     Complex adaptive systems survive and prosper because they learn.

There is a growing list of reference works dealing with these topics and many volumes by scientists and management experts are available to the City of Melbourne from the Futures Foundation's own library

2.   AN OVERVIEW:  

            What does the future hold for cities?  

Futurists all over the world have been addressing this question from a range of perspectives.   Some are deeply interested in the notion of community:  what comprises human community, how can we regain some of its strengths and combat its weaknesses, what governance systems are likely to work best, can any communities be self-sufficient in an increasingly globalised world?

Others are more concerned with environmental sustainability, and measure the inputs and outputs of energy and matter as a way of checking the ecological metabolism of a community.   Transport, welfare, housing, waste.... all of these old topics are new again as we look toward the possible futures of our cities.

“One thing is seen as a certainty,” writes Peter Ache from Glasgow.   “The city of the future will be far more a city region than simply a city quarter, and much more a complex system than a monolithic entity.  The evolving city region constitutes a political and economic power field, with a variety of cultures and societies, partly embedded into this, partly actively controlling and shaping it.

“Another certainty is the demise of classical models of controlled city development and traditional physical planning and, as a result, the demise of the classical action field of city planners, due to decreasing financial and substantial means.  This rather pessimistic scenario leaves us to question what foundations we can lay down today which allow for appropriate and flexible action to ensure a sustained future for city regions that satisfy the demands and expectations which society and the economy might have in the future.”

He quotes a survey of the German Institute of Urban Affairs which summarised a number of challenges and fields for cities and city regions in Germany:

•     local authority budgets will come under more pressure and plans for a new tax       system “will imply a spatial shift in tax revenues” (already some German cities are refinancing deficits by using accumulated assets)

•     migration and social polarisation will continue to be a problem, with migrants moving into urban areas and the German population drifting further out

•     communication and traffic will remain a problem

•     city regions will suffer from continued de-industrialisaton and thus mass unemployment… cities and city regions need pro-active strategies to build the service sector, especially business related services

•     media and telecommunications are considered priority action areas – not just for infrastructure but also for consumer service

•     velocity is seen as the coming challenge for city regions –

-     increasing speed of societal developments and enhanced capacities of communication technologies

-     cities occupy a nodal position in the overall system, which implies that here we are able to see most of the impacts and results.   “In the long run, it will be necessary to consider explicitly the time dimensions of local policy.”

•     Cooperation at the local level is considered to be the most important strategic area.1  

As in all futures work, it is important to acknowledge that the future cannot be predicted.   However speculation about possible and likely eventualities help cities to ensure that they have the capabilities required to meet each possibility with the greatest chance of success.

3.          DIRECTIONS:

            Some key shifts and trends?  

Richard Rogers, chair of the UK Architecture Foundation, argues that while cities are producing disastrous social instability and environmental crisis, they could provide a "springboard for restoring humanity's harmony with the environment".  To achieve this, they must focus on circular metabolism rather than linear metabolism.  Other requirements for future success include the notion of a compact city that rejects single-function development and car dominance.   Sustainable architecture, he says, by working buildings into the cycle of nature will return architecture to its roots. And the role of citizen participation is vital:  "Cities for a Small Planet must harness potential free time by encouraging creative citizenship to animate communities.2  

According to UNESCO "More sustainable and humane cities are primarily a matter of policy choice:  do-able policy options, as well as requisite resources, are available." 

Key challenges identified at Habitat II in 1996 are still current:

•     big cities are having a growing impact on the environment: the scale of planetary urbanisation requires a radical modification of action on behalf of the natural environment. "The city will have to be designed as a new form of environment."

•     there is a widening gap between infrastructure and needs, particularly regarding water, energy and transport,  especially in the developing world where urbanisation is occurring on the largest scale

•     urban modes of consumption are ill-adapted and inadequate, leading to unprecedented damage to the urban environment and the ecosystems on which cities depend, and the ecological imprint of the rich countries is quite disproportionate to their demographic size ("three planets the size of the Earth would be required to sustain six billion Canadians")

•     there is an urgent need to reconcile sustainable development and humanise the city - "…'the human habitat is political in so far as its intrinsic biodiversity is related to human values and human lifestyles'.  Awareness of this presupposes that strtegies are adopted which take account of 'the defence of cultural diversity, the relationship between conservation and development, and the relationship between ecology and democracy'."3

Key issues like this need to be seen systemically and it is often helpful to adopt a layered approach which sees present world outer realities on the surface level;  patterns, systems and structures at lower levels, finally reaching deeply into worldviews, mental models, metaphor and myth as the field from which perceptions, attitudes and behaviours emerge.   (See Appendix A)

SUSTAINABILITY:

This is a topic that deserves a report of its own.  However the City of Melbourne is clearly very well informed on sustainability issues so we will not dwell on the scientific or technological aspects.

It is clear that there are many urgent issues to be addressed, such as the continued availability of fresh water;  the problems of salinity;  and the need to find politically acceptable ways to re-connect the nutrient loop from cities to food-growing land.    There are signs that the business community is recognising the need to redesign production to eliminate waste:  this will ease pressure on both solid and liquid waste disposal but the results are not likely to be short term. 

But these tangible, present-day issues are not our concern in this report.   Instead we need to dig a little deeper, where we may discover an urgent need to address the systems and structures that enable or constrain responses to these issues at the surface level.   For example, one department's common sense response to an environmental issue may be another department's nightmare:  how can the system be changed to provide support instead of conflict?   A futures approach would seek ways to cut across "chimneys" that may be inhibiting appropriate responses, perhaps through a creative workshop in which all city stakeholders are represented.

Issues of communication and relationships are also embedded deeply in society,  and here it may be useful to see sustainability as a vehicle (for communication aimed at enlisting citizen participation, for example).   Addressing the process of dealing with  growing awareness, resistance, and ultimately acceptance of big issues in the community could yield value in the future as other issues, like sustainability, follow the same curve of emergence, dominance and resolution.

Deeper still, at the level of worldviews and mental models, the issue of sustainability provides us with a lens through which to explore what we see as measures of health or success for cities and other communities.  

Organisations of all kinds, including Councils, are beginning to understand the need for a broader set of measures of success than historical financial accounting and the Futures Foundation has been active in promoting these concepts and some of the tools with which they can be implemented.   A simple, starting concept is that of the "triple bottom line", now increasingly being adopted by diverse organisations who are choosing to voluntarily report their environmental and social performance as well as their financial performance.   (Appendix B)

This principle scales down to individual interpretations of what we mean by success -- the post-material paradigm, where wealth is no longer seen as the dominant status symbol;  and it scales up to interpretations of what we mean by success as communities and societies.  

The work of Richard Eckersley at ANU is of interest:  he looks at the throughput of resources as a "metabolism" of community, its measurement a measure of community health;  and he has also conducted research studies of whether Australians see their lives as getting "better".     The Australian Bureau of Statistics is conducting similar research, broadening its own definitions of what are the key measures of success in society. (Appendix C)

Of course, the economics of sustainability look better from a broader, longer view than a short and narrow one.   As is now becoming apparent in the financial reporting of private sector business organisations, short-term "success" is seen to be in direct conflict with long-term benefits.   Investments in environmental sustainability must be seen to be just that -- investment, instead of cost - when the issue is reframed at a societal level.

For example, bad air in cities kills hundreds of thousands:  Derek Elsom, professor of climatology at London's Oxford Brookes University, says that the health of as many as 1.6 bn people living in urban areas throughout the world may be at risk from poor air quality.4   Cross referencing health savings against immediate costs of environmental protection would show a more complete picture of cost/benefit.

NASA's Global Hydrology and Climate Centre found a similar relationship between urban planting and energy costs.    The Centre studied Atlanta's growth over 20 years and found the city has developed 'heat islands' - bubble-like accumulations of hot air - as a result of replacing grass and leaves with asphalt and concrete.   Areas with green space, such as parks, tend to be cooler, suggesting that cooling hot cities with trees -- urban forests, trees and other green cover -- to cast more shade on buildings may one day allow cities to hold down power cost.4

But what does sustainability really mean to planners?

Dr Tom Abeles of Minneapolis suggests that, for a start, we might use the word as a verb rather than a noun.   “Sustainability needs to be considered to be dynamic and evolving…. Sustainability provides the resilience which allows learning through mistakes and evolving visions not tied to a past that never was and a future that never will be.”

He highlights the importance of scale – of both time and space – and the different views that come from taking different perspectives:  a mayfly with the life of a day and the Galapagos tortoise will look at change differently, he says.  “What looks stable or sustainable to the former, may appear to be unstable to the latter.   And as human life spans increase or new tools expand awareness, perceptions, too, can be dynamic.”

He goes on to consider the life – and sustainability – of human settlements, using examples from the brief history of the USA such as the financing and development of the railroads.

“As the technology improved and barriers such as rivers were overcome, trains went further.  This led to the demise of many towns which lost their purpose.  Bigger engines, longer trains, and consolidation of shipping points occurred.  At the end of the First World War the agricultural markets collapsed and dependence on rail and horsepower was reduced as fuel shifted from hay and oats to gasoline.  At the end of the Second World War, the limited access highways and fast transport came into existence and towns with no interchange faded into the past….

 “Much of the struggle in the arena of planning is the inability to come to grips with the idea that, like mining towns which last as long as the resources are available, human settlements may be just as ephemeral on the larger urban landscape, perhaps with longer half-lives.   The seven cities of Troy are a monumental testimony of the human persistence in trying to establish a certain area of permanent settlement.  Many prehistoric sites show similar patterns of multiple habitations over long periods of time.  Yet all these periods pale before changes in environments at sites wrought by periodic waxing and waning of ice sheets and other natural phenomena.

 “The problems which we are having today, in effectively dealing with these issues is the time/space conflict discussed previously.”

Abeles finds a model in the work of conservationists in the arts and archaeology who know that, over time and with a growing body of experience, there will always appear a more effective means for preserving or restoring artefacts.  

“They develop these techniques with an eye towards a ‘dynamic’ permanence, one which is subject to evolution.   As we emerge into the information era, this metaphor provides a good guide post.  Design an environment which is as  permanent as possible, but one which allows recovery when new knowledge allows for better alternatives.”   He concluded that “sustainability means evolution and change.  Sustainability means being able to plan for and to live with such change.  The material manifestation of planning, such as cities, parks and social institutions are just markers in an evolving and changing path.”5

TECHNOLOGY  AND  ECONOMY

Technology is another issue, often dealt with at a superficial level, that can usefully be tracked down, layer by layer, to its roots in societal worldviews and especially self-images of communities.

It has clearly been a major driver in the global shift to urbanisation, though (like energy) it's perhaps too easy to see a one-directional causal relationship.   Of course cities arose from the technology of the loom and the steam engine, but after that beginning, hasn't it been the existence of cities that has given rise to new technologies?    As we look to the future of cities, the role of technology becomes even more interesting.

At a global level, there is increasingly disquiet at the runaway speed of technological progress without consideration of values other than those of the market.    At the same time, individuals, organisations and communities are being invited to redesign their lives, especially their work lives, to take advantage of the opportunities of technology.  

Key points for attention include:

•     the growing invisibility of "technology" (we see the program, not the TV;  the movie, not the camera)

•     the growing ability of next generation technologies -- biotech, nanotech, to shift emphasis from the changing mechanics of "making things" to the unchanging importance of human experience

•     a parallel shift of attention from the outer experience to the inner experience, hence a growing focus on relationships and emotional health

•     perhaps an economic shift, in terms of proportion of people working in these fields, away from the making of things to other skills and capabilities, both inner and outer.

Will the hard technologies move down the status ladder, to be outsourced and contracted offshore, while the new, soft "human technologies" take over?

Christopher May at the University of the West of England points out that the emergence of the global information society led to a decline of manufacturing employment and expansion of the service sector in developed economies.   To replace lost manufacturing jobs, many saw information and knowledge work as the future for displaced workers.   However he warns that informational labour is “just as amenable to task migration as manufacturing work, and thus policy prescriptions based on the presumption that developed states will retain most if not all knowledge work are mistaken.   Some developing states such as India and the Caribbean Islands are already successfully competing against knowledge services in the OECD states.”6 

The Futures Foundation already argues that whatever the future brings, the coming century is likely to be the century of the invisible.   Success for organisations will come from the way they gather and share information, knowledge wisdom;  from their rate of learning, adaptation, innovation;  the quality of their culture, values, relationships;  and from design, ideas, creativity.    Isn't this what we are seeing in the future of communities, too?

In an early response to the "experience" market, for example, we are already seeing cities fostering the arts as a way to save downtown... there are many examples of US cities aggressively using the arts to fuel growth, including 55-60 officially designated cultural districts in cities across the US.  But these are not always instantly successful - e.g. the California Center for the Arts in Escondido was judged to have been overly ambitious.  However, in contrast to other arts industries, US museums are setting attendance records, drawing 100m visitors in 1996.  Comparisons are drawn with channel-hopping and shopping:  visitors to museums can come and go at will, choose their own path, take their own time.  And these sites offer multiple value:  not only do they show art treasures,  they also serve as classroom, meeting place, playground, cinema, lecture hall, wine bar, etc.7

There has always been lively discussion of the role of sporting facilities as contributors to the cultural  and economic life of cities.   Now a recent book examines claims for subsidisation of sporting facilities (on the grounds that sports teams and facilities have a beneficial effect on the local economy) and concludes that in every case the local economic impact is far smaller than claimed and in some cases negative.  These findings are valid for the local neighbourhood, the city, and the entire metro area and for major leagues, minor leagues and spring training locations.  Yet, the authors note, "it is difficult to see an end to the growing public subsidisation of sports facilities". 8

Meanwhile, today's technology is making its own impacts, with consequent effects on population profiles and the provision of infrastructure as well as the highly visible impacts of the motor car, blamed for the destruction of many small communities with the development of the "big box" shopping centres.   There are indications, now, that these too will yield to change, leaving larger communities to face a different retail and service world with signs of a return to "main street shopping".

Interpretations of the way teleworking might affect life and work in communities have been many and varied, from those who anticipated a massive shift to telecommuting (working from home) to those who saw massively increased communication between computers in corporate nodes around the world.    As with so many aspects of the future, the answer seems to be that both of these variations and many more will become familiar parts of life.

In an exploration of the future of telework Dr Nicola Morelli, of RMIT in Melbourne, dug deeper to look for the principles that would guide the development of telework and how these might change the urban environments of commerce:

•     many life experiences will mix in the same place at the same time (the mix of activities will become richer…. work will share space with leisure, sports and other activities…. Flexible work times will allow people to experience different aspects of urban space at the same time… the nature of each area will no longer be defined by one major activity undertaken in it.

•     many different work arrangements and places will be used for the same activity, workers will choose where to work… work arrangements will not be rigid…. Dispersion and isolation will decrease the range of cvhoices, so new balances between concentration and freedom of residential choice will be sought… the nodal structure of information networks will increase concentration around the nodes.

•     many logical layers will intersect in the same place and in the same activity individuals will experience both physical and virtual proximity with other people… teleworkers will act on different layers and connect physical spaces with logical links.10

The economic role of the city itself is being seen in a new light, as globalisation shifts the loyalty of cities from their nation-state host to a global grid of strategic places, cutting across national boundaries.   But inside, says Saskia Sassen, Professor of Urban Planning at Columbia University, there is a new geography of centrality and marginality, with investment in downtowns continuing while other areas starve.

He writes of reconceptualising economic globalisation as concrete economic complexes situated in specific places.  In this view, the global economy seen as a worldwide grid of strategic places, cutting across national boundaries.   But inside them, there's a new geography of centrality and marginality, with investment being made in downtowns while other areas are starved.11

In any case, creativity is a precondition for a regional society to develop successful strategies, says Peter Ache, so the role of learning is equally important for the economy of a city region.   He says, “we live in an age of a global economy, where the logic of the economy does not necessarily develop in parallel with spatial logic"".   He highlights the key role of communication, and that of governance in planning cities of the future.   Communication, he says, will play a major role, not just in terms of infrastructure but also in the quality and content of what is communicated.   Governance, including new kinds of decision-making, will certainly change.  To meet new needs, says Ache, new modes of governance will need to be more flexible, less static and traditional, more communicative and creative, less standardised, open to learning processes and open to participation by many different stakeholders with respective material and immaterial assets.

In cities as in organisations, it seems, those with the competitive edge will be those whose people can work together in collaboration.   And a culture of learning will be the key to success.

“The paradigm of the learning region, or similar terms such as creative milieus or local innovation systems, can be developed into a model, where actors are strongly and flexibly networked, ideas and thoughts cross disciplinary boundaries rather than remaining isolated inside, where the network is not restricted to economic actors but incorporates social, political and institutional actors, where communication and information exchange is a frequent rather than an occasional event.  A region which is characterised by several of these elements might be able to learn, improve and develop further even if faced with new and hitherto unknown challenges.” (Appendix D.)

GOVERNANCE:

In many western countries, more and more communities are withdrawing the responsibility formerly delegated to government and seeking to increase their own self-management.   At the same time, governments face growing responsibilities with declining budgets and must anticipate an inverted pyramid in population growth that will reduce tax income while it increases costs. 

With the growing recognition of "rights" during the 20th century, there is also an increasing need for consultation and participation, often a costly process, though accepted as a necessary investment in positive change.   

The result is a shift to governance-in-partnership rather than government by edict.  As this is a new approach, the process is one of exploration and learning rather than overnight successes -- yet that shared learning process itself is creating good groundwork for successful partnerships for the future (and for creating a community capacity for learning).

Some directions of change in governance include

•     a shift of emphasis from the nation state to the city state

•     a change in the primary relationships of cities -- like today's teenagers,they seem to be seeking support from their peers more than a traditional authority.   Hence a shift from primary relationships between city and country, to relationships between cities in regional grids

•     growing requirements for citizen participation are accelerating the shift from government by control government in partnership

•     as the force of economic globalisation links cities and sharpens competition between them, it creates also a growing need for local identity, local culture, local products and services.

Paradox is buried in all of these -- for example, the notion of participation is central to new understandings of lasting success, yet those who have worked in community organisations know that it isn't always easy to elicit this participation.  This and other factors highlight the value of futures work in providing tools to elicit the commitment of citizens to the creation and realisation of shared visions.

The market, of course, still caters to other fears and desires.   For example, in the USA gated communities have been springing up around the country since the early 80s and now include more than three million American households in 20,000 communities.    Roughly one third are designed for upper and upper-middle class residents;  one third for elderly;  one third for middle class.   As these developments increase rapidly, one developer estimates that 80 per cent of new urban projects are gated.14

Also in the USA, there are signs of "forting up", with homeowner associations moving strongly into the marketplace.  They seek to provide a growing range of services to their members in a bid to localise governance and avoid public access to local resources.  Gated fortresses are an extreme instance of a broader trend to common-interest developments.  Some 32m Americans are estimated to be living in CIDs, while homeowner associations have grown from 500 in 1962 to 10,000 in 1970 and 150,000 in 1992 with an estimate of 225,000 by 2000.12

The demographics of urbanisation (50 per cent of world population now), of ageing and of work are key drivers which are already well monitored by city planners.   Similarly, pressure on infrastructure with congestion - crowding, overuse of amenities - and appropriate cycling of resources is already well understood.  Some of the visions and scenarios included later in this report offer a variety of attempts to deal with these issues.

CITIZEN  PARTICIPATION

Broad-based citizen participation is acknowledged as a key ingredient in creating new visions for cities and implementing those visions.   However, like justice itself, participation must not only be done but must also be seen to be done.   If a community is to believe that it has been consulted there must be no doubt in anyone's mind that they have had the opportunity to participate;  and there must be no doubt that contributions from participants have been heard and considered as part of the process.  Again, we see the critical role of  comprehensive, effective and consistent communication to build relationships of trust.

Richard Rogers, chair of the UK Architecture Foundation, notes that the future of cities and civilisation depends on citizens.   But before cities can reassert their role, he says, there is a circle that must be broken.  At the present time, nations have the power, nations do not trust their cities and cities do not trust their citizens.  This results in cities becoming dependent on the state.   Rogers says that for civilisation to advance, cities will have to trust their citizens more, help them formulate their demands and then make their demands on power just as nation states and large organisations do.13

The failures of systems that did not include consultation are easy to point out.     "Urban developers and large-scale projects have failed the cities" argue a US journalist and a consultant on downtown revitalisation.   The problem, they say, is that malls, stadiums, apartment buildings and convention centres overwhelm the neighbourhoods they occupy, destroy historic buildings and draw people off the streets.  "No wonder citizens flee to the suburbs," they write.   City officials should act on the ideas generated by city dwellers themselves to improve their local neighbourhoods - an alternative approach called 'urban husbandry'.14

Others are urging American communities to "reclaim the streets" by using sidewalks and laneways as extra living space.   David Engwicht outlines why this action can transform streets from traffic-congested nightmares to "out-door living rooms", and offers practical advice to citizens to take action in their own neighbourhood.   This effort aims to reduce traffic, to restore the dual function of streets as living areas as well as traffic lanes, and to convert lost space back to "exchange space".15

In the next section we report a number of successful projects to rescue communities -- in Chattanooga, where a business incubator was designed to solve local problems, create new partnerships;  in Roxbury, Mass. where "Dudley Street" is being reinvented;  in Santa Monica, where a Public Electronic Network is creating communication opportunities;  and in Chelsea, Mass. where citizens are Rewriting the Charter.

Much of this effort incorporates recognition of social inequities and a desire to restore balance.   One popular example of this recognition is in the oft-emailed snapshot of global society by Phillip M. Harter of Stanford University  (Appendix E).

And all over the world, concerned citizens are seeking green solutions, whether from personal plantings in community gardens or local streets, or the wholesale replacement of building sites with green spaces, as in Seattle.  

VISIONS  AND  MODELS

There is nothing to challenge the power of the vision to create positive change in communities, unless it is the model offered by another community's achievement.  Fortunately, the number of models is growing rapidly all over the world.

Theoretically any vision must be a shared vision if it is to win the commitment and support of all stakeholders in the community.   However experience shows that the vision of a leader or leadership team -- or the sharing of a model -- also works well if it is communicated effectively and allows participation by others to share the ownership as time goes by.

But creating a shared vision and making it happen do not automatically go together.    Author Lisbeth Schorr asks why successful models seem to remain models?   "We have learned to create the small exceptions that can change the lives of hundreds.  But we have not learned how to make the exceptions the rule to change the lives of millions", she writes.   She points to an "unprecedented cynicism about the capacity of government" and attacks the assumption that this trust deficit is permanent, that past efforts have failed more often than succeeded, and that large-scale social reform does more harm than good.16

Still, positive visions relevant to the future of cities are legion, from the realities of Portland, Oregon's "Green Peace" project (in which a freeway was replaced with a park;  light rail carries people to a lively downtown, and citizens of all races help keep the city green, liveable and affordable) to the aspirations of Ian Wilson's "New Athens" scenario (featuring community-orientation, 'public purpose' values, social cohesion and a culture that expands on Malraux's concept of a 'museum without walls').

Urban villages, community gardens, native plantings are all part of a global desire to create greener cities, where people are finding that inner cities, blue-collar suburbanites and environmentals have more in common than they might think when it comes to creating an appealing environment.

In Australia, Wyong City worked to design a  community centred on its school, while the Surf Coast of Victoria saw itself as a region where tourism could evolve into a "wellbeing industry".   The City of Brisbane has created a sophisticated set of scenarios and other cities and communities are actively exploring new visions for the future.

Milwaukee Mayor, John O. Norquist, wrote of the Congress for New Urbanism17  iin his book about "The Wealth of Cities: Revitalising the Centres of American Life".   This Congress, he said, seeks to restore existing urban centres and towns;  to design for community;  to promote sidewalks and front porches, and to resurrect the traditional Main Street.

In Roxbury, Mass. community residents of the Dudley Street neighbourhood came together in 1984 to create their own plan for making a community "just like anyone else's" -- with houses that people own, with jobs, with a chance to see people grow to their potential.   Ten years later, the Dudley Street Neighbourhood Initiative, catalysed around an effort to stop outside dumping in the vacant lots of destroyed and abandoned housing stock, has become the trusted and empowering vehicle through which Dudley Street's people build new housing, improve their schools, debate the issues and design and incubate programs that respond to each new challenge as it occurs.

In Santa Monica, Calif. the Public Electronic Network, a pioneering community network set up by the city, has allowed city residents from all walks of life to share ideas, debate issues and seek common solutions to local problems.  In an effort to address the town's growing problems with homelessness, home owners and homeless people who logged on from public terminals joined with city council members and other stakeholders in an electronic discussion that led directly to the creation of new programs that provided public services the homeless needed, and that homeowners could support.

In Chelsea, Mass. citizens overwhelmingly rejected the charter created following Chelsea's 1991 bankruptcy because they "had no input in it".  A community mediation project supported a charter-rewriting initiative, overcoming polarisation between Asians, Hispanics and whites with indigenous community leaders trained to function as facilitators in community groups.   And in Chattanooga, Tennessee, a visioning project invited everyone in the community to help create a plan a vision for a city that faced deteriorating properties, rising unemployment and increasing racial tension -- with outstanding results.

The real stories behind these examples, and hundreds more, are not about outcomes but about processes.  They are stories of problem-solving, of engagement, of dialogue and especially of learning.   They are stories about communities of people who are

•     collaborative, inclusive, pluralistic

•     ‘convening’ regularly

•     citizens who see territory as “ours” not “theirs”

And they are stories about building bonds of trust between citizens of all races and colours, converting that trust into small-scale institutions that become vehicles for action - incubators for solutions.  

SCENARIOS

The Non-Stop City seems almost inevitable, with our own Richard Neville and futures writer L.Michael Hager both speculating about hot-desking (like vacation time-sharing); multi-shift schools;  time-share housing;  and other measures that would ease traffic congestion.   Hager also offers some heretical ideas about time, proposing "global time" and an eight-day week with an extra day placed between Saturday and Sunday to extend leisure time.18

Danish futurist Rolf Jensen offers scenarios for the Green City, the High Tech City, Blade-Runner City and the Story-Telling City, where basic material needs are met and poverty means only a lack of the right setting, right signals, right story to bolster identity.

He notes that rural life has been the dominant human condition from the first human life until today - an historic change.  And he acknowledges that in his scenarios, he is looking at the future in rich part of the world.... not just through the social sciences but also the zeitgeist.2    

His scenarios, in brief:

1     Green City:  non-polluting, electric car, noiseless city

      Green roads, wild parks and untamed nature, alternative energy

      Refuse sorted at source, no(?) packaging

      Architecture that imitates nature, recyclable

2     High Tech City:  distant work, maybe 25-50%, at work 2-3 days weekly.  No rush hour.  Live and work in different cities (not rural commute)  Smaller shopping because home shopping, night deliveries.  Safe traffic - road chips, GPS, car computers etc.

3     Blade-Runner City:  crime, violence, no law & order, people move out.  No tax, therefore no maintenance.  Lack of faith in authority

4     Story-Telling City:  material needs met - in 15-20 yrs, average city dweller 30%       better off - poverty means only lack of right setting, right signals, right story.  Shopping somewhere between exhibition and show.  Parks are shows.19

Ian Wilson developed the following set of scenarios using economic evolution and socio-political values as drivers.  Quadrants show experiential society and superindustrial economy, private interest and public purpose.20

1     Global Power Centre:  strategic node in network of trade, ecommerce and finance.  Economic values define culture, urban development private, not planned.   Urban landscape practical, not aesthetic or amenities.  Gentrification.  Public/private partnerships eg Kingston North Carolina (transport hub, trade zone)   By 2050 these have gained influence and stature, 21C = of city states

2     Bio-Technic City:  public policy shapes the future.  Sustainable development is the goal, Mumford's bio-technic city the urban model.   Seen as a living ecosystem. Development harmonised with land.  Social effort to resolve "brown" problems for a "green" future - eg Kalundborg  (coal power, refinery, biotech, p/board factory and city in industrial ecology)

3     Customised City:  ultimate decentralisation, the customised or mosaic city.  Core city power diminished by rise of suburbs and exurbs.  Information  technology pushes further, almost a virtual city (Lloyd Wright's Broadacres).  Defined by needs and lifestyles of each family - triangulation of

      -     home family and personal needs

      -     career and work needs

      -     shopping, entertainment and self-development needs

      But is it sustainable?

4     The New Athens:  Community-oriented, 'public purpose' values, social cohesion.  Technology reinforces devolution of power, increases democratic power.  New patterns of relationships based on common tastes or interests. Culturally, expands on Malraux's concept of a 'museum without walls', making art, music and literature broadly available.

Abdul Khakee, in his work with Swedish communities responding to Agenda 21, distinguishes between three generations of scenarios.6   The first generation is termed 'expert scenarios' because of the predominant role of experts.   The second generation of scenarios is named 'hybrid scenarios' because attempts were made to include politicans and local government officials in their preparation. The current generation of scenarios are participatory scenarios, expected to be the product of a discourse among all stakeholders in a community.  

The scenario produced by the community of Orebro was a participative scenario with dialogue between city inhabitants, city government, business, neighbourhoods and schools.   In this scenario, recycling and repair is a big business in Orebro by 2025.   Most products are based on recycled material and no material is used that is environmentally damaging or has unclear side-effects.  Household and industrial waste exists only in the form of organic matter which can be recycled. The municipality has built up a recycling system which uses much less energy than the exploitation of raw materials.

A vision of a green landscape is an important element of the scenario, with forestry adapted to the needs of nature and natural flora and fauna restored in lakes and streams.  Methods to carry out ecological agriculture have been further developed and artificial insecticides and weed-killers have been replaced bynatural remedies an methods.   Effective use of energy and energy economising techniques have reduced energy consumption by more than half, and fossil fuels are no longer used.  Joint location of small sewage-treatment plants, energy forests and district heating plants reduces the need for transporting sludge to forest and forest to heating plants.   

The scenario depicts a radical decrease in the overall need for transportation, with far-reaching coordination of the movement of goods and services.  Cars are still used but are smaller and greener.  Replanning of urban districts has reduced the distance between home, work and recreation for a majority of the inhabitants and the new communication technologies have played a significant role in reducing travel.  There are many cycle-paths.

According to Professor Khakee, "In the year 2025 the people have a high life quality, good health and are active citizens.  They live in a pollution-free environment.  Orebro has become nationally well-known for its quality of life and many households from other parts of the country migrate to Orebro."21

Arthur B. Shostak in Philadelphia also presents a number of scenarios for future cities - which he acknowledges are based on North American cities:

The Hard-Edge City  is  a community in which people are focussed on survival.  There are shortages of critical goods and services with inadequate revenue intake, and a widening gulf between haves and have-nots.   The city has resilience, however, and a history of repeat recoveries.  

The Edge City is a community for getting ahead, its people seeking personal gain.   Problems include the "inability of infrastructure to keep up fantasy" and the increasing demands made on it, and the lack of roots of the residents.   However, this community is the new locus of the American Dream.

The Soft-Edge City is a community that seeks societal reform.  While it is vulnerable to derision as an unattainable, and difficult to oeprationalise and maintain over generations, it does maintain a continuing focus on utopian urban possibilities.

The No-Edge City is another getting-ahead city, where residents are concentrating on doing better, on personal gain.   Problems include estrangement from older cities and suburbs, and the fragility of bonds among high-turnover residents.   Its strength is seen as its emphasis on information as the new wealth.22

YOUTH  FUTURES

“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors.   We borrow it from our children.”

Haida Indian saying

If hope and happiness are essential ingredients for a successful future (as the philosophers tell us they are), then no exploration of the future of cities would be complete without examining youth futures.  Where once we expected to find idealism, we now find despair and desperation -- high levels of clinical depression among young people, high levels of suicide.   If we can engage them in creating positive views of the future there will be multi-dimensional benefits for them and their host communities.  

This is best done in real life, in real time, with the creation of mechanisms that engage young people in imagining their own future communities and finding ways to begin making them happen.  

Meanwhile, we can draw on the work of futurist Professor Sohail Inayatullah, who reports that meaning for many young people has been hijacked by merchandising:  "I shop, therefore I am".   For others, however, there are different values:  "I love, therefore I am" or even "I protest, therefore I am".  

Dr Inayatullah's work in Europe and Asia has engaged classes of young people in creating future scenarios, and he has also checked their hopes and desires about the future against their expectations.

      Two major scenarios from the young people were:

Globalised Artificial Future

A global society where we all have fun and have all desires met.  Techno-fix.   Genetic engineering, new species, end of ‘natural’procreation, life extension   Ageing, end of youth culture.   Nano-technology - end of scarcity & work.  Artificial intelligence - rights of robots. Space exploration.    Internet - the global brain

Communicative-inclusive

Values driven, creating shared global ethics more important than challenge of technology.  Dialogue of civilisations - many ways of knowing.

Balanced but dynamic economy, ‘co-operative capitalism’.  Maxi-mini global wage system - more equity.  Global governance in bio-regions

What young people preferred/expected:

      Continued growth        16.7%

      Collapse                16.7%

      Green/Sustainability          27.8%

      Transformation          38.9%

Older people anticipated:

   More progress, technology, development, wealth, individuality

Younger people anticipated:

   Transformation, green/spiritual values / wise-moral use of technology

   - a spiral curve.

4.    "BRAND"  NEW  FUTURES  FOR  COMMUNITIES

A basic principle of futures work is understanding that we can learn from the future as well as from the past.  However this does not diminish the value of learning from the past.   In the case of communities, there is much to be learned about what doesn't change, as well as what does.

As Peter Hall put it in his Cities of Tomorrow,"We too often fail to realise that our ideas and actions have been thought and done by others, long ago;  we should be conscious of our roots".  

He listed some examples of earlier concepts:

•     Cities of Imagination (1880-1987)

•     The City of Dreadful Night (19th c. slum cities, 1880-1900)

•     City of By-Pass Variegated (the mass transit suburb, 1900-1940)

•     City in the Garden (garden city solution of Ebenezer Howard and others)

•     City in the Region (birth of regional planning 1900-1940)

•     City of Monuments (the city beautiful movement)

•     City of Towers (the Corbusian radiant city ("the evil Le Corbusier did lives after him")

•     City of Sweat Equity (Patrick Geddes and other anarchist thinkers, 1890-1987)

•     City on the Highway (automobile suburb 1920-1987)

•     City of Theory (planning and the academy)

•     City of Enterprise (conventional planning seems to be discredited 1957-1987)

•     City of the Permanent Underclass (the enduring slum 1920-1987)

•     City of the Tarnished Belle Epoque (infocities and informationless ghettos,  New York, London, Tokyo 1985-2010).23

Looking forward, now, we find many of the visions and scenarios from communities and futurists all over the world -- unsurprisingly, perhaps -- include extremely similar characteristics such as physical sustainability ("green cities");  cultural vitality ("lively cities");  success in the new economy ("smart cities");  and networking in the physical region as well as global cyberspace ("connected cities").

And there are other perspectives.  

Claudia Bell and John Lyall at the University of Auckland explore the future of community under the heading, “the social ergonomics of community design”.   According to their scenario, style will become a major priority in the 2025 community and the gurus of the age will be the Community Designers.

 “At first these will be multi-disciplinary visionaries, who will be accorded the fame and celebrity of late-twentieth-century film stars,” they say.   Their ideas for planned communities will take into account the vast growth of cyber communities and communication; expansion of surveillance as rampant public crime works against community safety;  more social control in highly conservative communities; and the development of Smart Towns.   But they will also offer grand schemes for the development of theme towns.”

Their scenarios propose a new cult of community, with citizens wanting warm relationships and material comfort but without damage to society and the environment.  They argue that the beginnings of this process are already visible with the development of gated communities, townhouse estates and retirement villages: however in the new communities thre will be more emphasis on human relationships and shared ideologies.   “The new communitarianism will grow to create a new hegemony, with enormous emphasis in all western cultures on a profession called Community Design….a new populism will decenter the state: all local issues will be maters for community.   This will not be by devolution from dntral government but by reclaiming processes, as dwellers in the new millennium reclaim the ideology, and practice, of community.”   

They see the reduction of boundaries between nation states continuing, making people world citizens at the same time as they reject processes of homogenisation.  “Individuals in elective communities will reclaim values other than the economic, and push them into dominant ideology.”   And they argue that the abstract imagined communities of nation will shift to the level of community and will be actually physically constructed – not just for tourists, “but as sincere efforts to create communities that provide environments of positive human relationships; the realisation of ‘the capacity of people to develop new structures of mutual support and exchange within a non-government context.”

“Underpinning the ideology of the new constructed communities will be the rejection of the power of the economic model as the dominant rationale for organising society.  Distinctive, unique communities will be increasingly desired, as individual residents recognise that maximum economic growth is not their personal agenda.  There will no longer be acceptance of the artificial obsolescence of products.  Self gratification as the market-justification model for consumption will shift, as communal values and conservation of the environment become driving agendas.”

These futurists anticipate the continuation of the private domestic dwelling but note that community members will be increasingly dependent on one another for social life, recreation and as business colleagues, as suspicion of the world beyond the enclave increases.   “We suggest that neighbourly cooperation for rational use of environmental resources such as solar power and recycling systems will be a fundamental assumption – indeed, communities will be competitively rated for their achievements on environmental matters.”

Nanotechnology and biotechnology will change systems of food production to the point of enabling the home growing of food cells or the production of food in food centres within the community.  

The role of style, however, is seen as paramount.   “We are firmly convinced that style will be the dominant reference point for individual identification.  The major development will be theme villages, referred to simply as Themes… some will appropriate the traditional English model.  Indeed, Fairford Leys currently being built in Buckinghamshire precisely matches this scenario;  2000 homes ‘drawing on the long heritage of the English village….’

“Television programs and computer games will inspire the most popular residential fantasies.  Notions of semiotic landscape will be adapted from computer games such as Civilization, by designers whose general knowledge of such places has been mediated by new technological versions of history.  Many villages will have commrcial sponsors:  Bill Gates Villages, Pepsi Nostalgia Towns, Bruce Willis Boroughs.  Their logos will be emblazoned on homes, vehicles, clothing and streetscapes.

“In a subcategory called Lego Communities, membership will be strictly constructed to match standard preset criteria, by variables of age, race, religion, and life stage, to create composite cross-generation communities.  ‘Lego’ refers to the people structure.  The constructed style may be anything from neoprene teepees, log cabins restated in stainless steel, or adobe shapes revisited in instant ceramix.”

These imaginative researchers continue with a host of ideas, ranging from retro-towns (where tourists can “vacation in the rural past” – grow vegetables in soil, handle livestock, learn artisan crafts, and cook using raw materials) to Interactive Soap, where participation in the fictional television village will become wildly popular, with soap opera as an interactive event blurring the roles of actors and viewers.

“We will see neo-gypsies:  stateless persons, such as Palestinians;  and landless persons, for instance Pacific Islanders forced to relocate because of the flooding of their islands as a consquence of global warming. Many will form peripatetic boat communities and floating villages while others will drift from nation to nation, seeking citizenship.”

And all that richness of diversity is precisely why the Community Designer will become the guru of the future, they say.   After endless tinkering with versions of community and a high failure rate, we will move on to more substantive considerations about total environment design, building materials and sustainability as we seek to create tailormade community.

“A new professional group called Community Designers will purposefully create appropriate spaces for the dwellers of the next century.   These holistic designers will come from the major new discipline, an amalgam of prior separated disciplines;  sociology, architecture, landscape design, sculpture, social-psychology, ecology, human geography, cultural studies….The old discipline of planning will be redundant, rejected as authoritarian and partisan to political structures.”

Meanwhile, the appeal of community will escalate because of the unprecedented ranges of lifestyle choices, they say.   “If nothing available suits, simply commission Community Designers to create a new lifestyle!   The fashionable theme villages preceding Community Design constructs will become boring.  In the latter, broader approach, citizens have central roles as corporate managers and owners, with scope for greater individual and communal satisfaction….The advent of Community Design … marks a specific, history change, indeed revolution, in community building.

“Countless versions of community have been tested in human history.   But from the earliest settlements of hunters and gatherers, the first agriculturalists and horticulturalists, through various stages to industrialism, the information age, cyber-age and, next, the nano-technological age, we think that adaptations of community must continue to survive.  When the option is the total loss of the human community, we believe people will rally for its survival.  It is the most likely guarantee of their own."24

5.          CONCLUSION

The forces of change for cities are well-known to planners.  

In the physical context, they are dominated by the need for the introduction of new ways to use resources and manage (or eliminate or recycle) waste, including the transformation of the way we produce goods and services.

In the social context, they are dominated by growing recognition of the importance of relationships and the way they are created, nurtured, honoured and protected.

In the cultural context, they are dominated by a shift in western worldviews to encompass a more holistic paradigm which borrows from eastern and indigenous worldviews.   Research indicates that the number of individuals adopting this new set of values will reach 25% in the US by 2015;  an Australian estimate is 20%.

Whatever the details of visions and strategies for change in communities of all kinds, there seems little doubt of

•     the power of a compelling vision

•     the value of models from elsewhere

•     the need for participation in developing and implementing the change

•     the complexity of issues involved, and the value of regarding all aspects of the process as part of a learning process.

The Futures Foundation can draw on a stable of professional futurists who have practical experience in working with communities to imagine and create new, preferred futures for themselves.    We would be happy to work more closely with the City of Melbourne in implementing any work it wishes to undertake in this area.

6           References

1     Vision and Creativity -- challenge for city regions  Peter Ache  Futures, Vol.32    pp 436-449 No.5 2000

2     Cities for a Small Planet:  Richard Rogers, Chair, The Architecture Foundation,       London:  (Faber & Faber)

3     Cities and Environment in the 21st Century: a future-oriented synthesis after       Habitat II+  Jerome Binde, Futures, Vol.30 No. 6 pp 499-518 1998

4     The Futurist, Sept-Oct 1997 p13

5     The Futurist, May 1998 p13

6     Is Sustainability a viable concept for planning?   Tom P. Abeles

      Foresight, Vol.01 No. 03 June 1999

7     Information, task mobility and the end of work  Christopher May, School of    Politics, University of the West of England, Bristol Futures, Vol.32 No.5 2000

8     New York Times 5/10/97, 18/11/97

9     Sports, Jobs and Taxes:  The economic impact of Sports Teams and Stadiums, Roger D. Noll (Stanford U) and Andrew Zimbalist (Smith) eds. (Washington: Brookings Institution 12/97).

10    Future configurations for remote work   Dr Nicola Morelli  RMIT University,       Foresight, Vol.01 No. 03 June 1999

11    Globalisation and its Discontents, Saskia Sassen, Professor of Urban Planning, Columbia U. The New Press 3/98

12    Fortress America: Gated Communities in the US, Edward J. Blakely and Mary     Gail Snyder, (Washington: Brookings Institution 12/97)

13    Cities for a Small Planet:  Richard Rogers, Chair, The Architecture Foundation,       London:  (Faber & Faber)

14    Cities Back from the Edge: New Life for Downtown Roberta Brandes Gratz and Norman Mintz, John Wiley and Sons 1998

15    Reclaiming our Streets   David Engwicht   Yes!  A Journal of Positive Futures  Summer 1999

16    Common Purpose: Strengthening Families and Neighborhoods to Rebuild America  Lisbeth B. Schorr (Lecturer in Social Medicine, Harvard U.)  Anchor Books/Doubleday Sept. 1997

17    The Wealth of Cities:  Revitalising the Centres of American Life, John O.    

      Norquist, Mayor of Milwaukee, (Addison-Wesley 6/98)

18    The Nonstop City - and Other Heretical Notions About Time, L. Michael Hager,  The Futurist, May-June 1997

19    Four Futures: The Post-Industrial City 2010 Rolf Jensen  Fremtidsorientering  The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies - special issue 1996:  The Future of the City in Post-Industrial Societies 

20    Cities and Societies of the Future: Paradigms of 2050, Ian Wilson

21    Participatory scenarios for sustainable development  Professor Abdul Khakee   Orebro University, Sweden  Foresight,  Vol.01 No. 03 June 1999 pp .229-240

22    Scenarios of Change in Urban Environments  Arthur B.Shostak, Professor of Sociology, Dept of Psychology and Sociology, Drexel University, Philadelphia.  Futures Research Quarterly,  Spring 1995

23    Cities of Tomorrow, Peter Hall, Professor of Planning, University College,    London (Blackwell, 12/96)

24    Community in the new epoch: the social ergonomics of community design  Claudia Bell and John Lyall , Department of Sociology, University of Auckland

      Futures Vol. 32 No. 8 October 2000 pp 749-758