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Time to stop playing games on climate change: Task Force Issues Paper "an insult", says expert PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jan Lee Martin   
Sunday, 01 April 2007
A former chairman of the Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissionsiandunlop Trading has added to the criticism of the Federal Government’s climate change policy by Treasury Secretary Ken Henry, as reported in today’s Australian Financial Review.

Ian Dunlop, who chaired the group that produced the first design for a National Emissions Trading system in 1999, expressed his total frustration with the current political debate on climate change: “The government’s current approach continues the process of denial and misrepresentation which has characterised its climate change policy since the 1990’s.
“It is a paper which might have been appropriate as a primer in the early 1990s, but to put it forward today as a serious contribution to addressing this critical issue suggests that the Federal Government does not, or does not want to, understand the seriousness of the challenge we face, and is intent on delaying effective action yet again.” (Full text of the submission is at www.pmc.gov.au/emissionstrading/ submissions.cfm#individual).

However Mr Dunlop’s main messages were that the Federal Government must follow its change of mind on global warming with an urgent change of policy, and that the challenge of climate change is also an opportunity, for companies willing to be creative in the way they do business.

Having crossed the threshold from denial to accepting that climate change is a serious issue, which the government now claims to have done, sensible policy becomes mandatory. Time is of the essence, for the longer it takes to implement solutions, the harder they become, particularly given growing evidence of non-linear climatic responses to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.” He emphasised that recent government initiatives such as efficient lighting were valuable, but were only fiddling at the edges.

"The current piecemeal government approach is designed to be seen to be doing 'something' about climate change to calm the electorate, whilst avoiding the hard decisions. These initiatives are totally inadequate to meet the challenge we face. Regrettably, the Opposition show little sign of taking genuine leadership on this issue. It is time to stop playing political games”.

He cited the Issues Paper recently released by the Prime Minister’s Task Group on Emissions Trading which he described as an insult to the community.

"Even the paper’s Terms of Reference are anachronistic, requiring results that are no longer possible and omitting the most basic policy guidelines for an emissions trading system."

In a submission to the Task Group he pointed out that the Issues Paper “ignores the substantial body of knowledge on climate change and related issues built up over the last 20 years.”Quoting the Time Magazine headline: “Don’t blow it – good planets are hard to find”, the submission sets out a clear agenda for sensible climate change policy.   It also draws attention to the approach of Peak Oil and its impacts:  “Climate change and peak oil are inextricably linked.  Each one is a major issue in its own right, but their convergence has received minimal attention, which is unfortunate as it is likely to have far greater impact than the sum of the individual parts.”

Mr Dunlop calls for urgent action from the Federal Government on these two critical issues.

“Having crossed the threshold from denial to accepting that climate change is a serious issue, which the government now claims to have done, sensible policy becomes mandatory,” he said.   “Time is of the essence, for the longer it takes to implement solutions, the harder they become, particularly given growing evidence of non-linear climatic responses to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.”

Key features of Ian Dunlop’s proposed climate change policy – written in consultation with an impressive body of experts from around the world -- included
  • -  appropriate targets to stabilise and contract global carbon emissions
  • -  more equitable distribution of the contraction task toward a future goal of equal  
  •    per capita emissions globally, say by 2040
  • -  reduction of Australian emissions to meet this goal – which would mean a 50 per
  •    cent reduction by 2025
  • -  establishment of a system of Tradeable Energy Quotas to provide an efficient and
  •    effective emissions trading scheme
  • -  directional incentives to speed the transition to a low-carbon economy and to
  •    capitalise on new business opportunities
  • -  restrictions on fossil fuel export projects until either all exported carbon can be
  •    securely sequestered on a long-term basis or it is accounted for in the importing
  •    country by global carbon reduction agreements or local carbon-intensive
  •    investment projects
  • -  inclusion of airlines and international sea freight in reduction programs
  •    international emissions trading.

In parallel with climate change, he says, there is a high probability that the peak of global oil production will be reached within the next five years.

“Oil does not run out, but it is the point at which further expansion of oil production becomes impossible because new production is fully offset by the decline of existing production, irrespective of the oil price.    Policy must ensure that solutions to the one reinforce, and do not conflict with, solutions to the other.”

But perhaps the hardest part of making these critical changes in policy, says Ian Dunlop, will be achieving the required changes of mind.

“The transition to a low-carbon economy will fundamentally alter the lifestyle of the entire community.  It will only be achieved successfully if there is a whole-hearted commitment to achieving these objectives.  To build this commitment will require extensive community awareness programmes.  

“Rather than continually being presented as a problem, it must be seen as a unique opportunity to set humanity on a new course, built on sustainable principles.  

“Conventional economic growth is a large part of the problem.  We must move to a new paradigm of a sustainable economy. This requires large structural change, but whilst some industries decline, greater opportunities open up.    It is essential to take a proactive, forward looking view and seize these sustainable opportunities, rather than reactively defend an unsustainable status quo.   The former represent the future of Australia, whereas the latter guarantees our decline and immeasurable community hardship.

“Above all, visionary, principled, long-term leadership is need in government, the community and business.   Action is required in the next 6-12 months, not in the 3-5 years favoured in political debate. ”

_____________


Mr Dunlop's own summary of his submission was as follows:

Recent reports have confirmed what has been intuitively and practically evident for many years, namely:
  • carbon emission from human activity is leading to increased atmospheric carbon concentrations.  This is very likely to be causing major climate change, particularly temperature increases, which will become dangerous and potentially catastrophic if carbon concentrations are allowed to continue rising.
  • The evidence is sufficiently clear that urgent precautionary measures should be taken to reduce human carbon emissions if dangerous consequences are to be avoided.
  • The cost of doing nothing far outweighs the cost of action to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

The Terms of Reference (ToR) for the Prime Ministerial Task Group on Emissions Trading state:

“Australia enjoys major competitive advantages through the possession of large reserves of fossil fuels and uranium.  In assessing Australia’s further contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, these advantages must be preserved.

“Against this background the Task Group will be asked to advise on the nature and design of a workable global emissions trading system in which Australia would be able to participate.. The Task Group will advise and report on additional steps that might be taken, in Australia, consistent with the goal of establishing such a system.”

In the circumstances we now face, these ToR are an anachronism:
  • It is impossible to “preserve Australia’s major competitive advantages which we enjoy through the possession of large reserves of fossil fuels and uranium” in moving from a carbon-intensive to a low-carbon world, and we should not pretend otherwise.
  • The ToR make no reference to the scale of emission reductions required.  An emissions trading system, of itself, will not lead to emission reductions; it will only do so when set in the context of an overall climate change policy containing binding emission reduction targets.  The design of an emissions trading system is dependent on the scale of reductions required.  We have no policy setting out overall direction and appropriate targets, thus we do not have the pre-requisites to design an effective system.

The Issues Paper released in early-February 2007 is, frankly, an insult to both the community and to those in this country who have developed a substantial body of knowledge on climate change, emissions trading and related issues over the last two decades.  It is a paper which might have been appropriate as a primer in the early-1990s.  To put it forward today as a serious contribution to addressing this critical issue, ignoring the body of knowledge from earlier enquiries which exists within government, and which answers the questions raised, suggests that the Federal Government does not, or does not want to, understand the seriousness of the challenge we face, and is intent on delaying effective action yet again.

In parallel with climate change, there is a high probability that the peak of global oil production will be reached within the next five years.  Oil does not run out, but it is the point at which further expansion of oil production becomes impossible because new production is fully offset by the decline of existing production, irrespective of the oil price.   It may take the form of a sharp peak, from which oil availability declines rapidly, or it may be an undulating plateau spread over a number of years if, for example, oil demand drops as a result of climate change impact.

Climate change and peak oil are inextricably linked.  Each one is a major issue in its own right, but their convergence has received minimal attention, which is unfortunate as it is likely to have far greater impact than the sum of the individual parts. Policy must ensure that solutions to the one reinforce, and do not conflict with, solutions to the other.  Thus, peak oil has direct relevance to overall climate change policy and the design of an emissions trading system.
Last Updated ( Monday, 16 April 2007 )
 
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