The Futures Foundation

The Rudd Government’s plan to hold a Vision 2020 conference in April is one of the most intelligent moves seen from government for a long time, according to Charles Brass, chairman of The Futures Foundation. “The choices we make today are the choices that create the future,” he said. “ For too long, these choices have been made for the wrong reasons -- for short term gain, and for limited beneficiaries.

"It is encouraging now to see the Federal Government make a positive effort to consider the future more wisely. This conference makes an excellent starting point, but let’s remember that on any map of the future, there be dragons. It would be reassuring to know that the organisers have included this awareness in their planning.”

The Futures Foundation, established in 1997, specialises in exploring the future and represents Australia’s professional futurist community. Although it exists to promote positive outcomes – its mission is “inspiring ways to create the future” – it warns that the practice of futuring includes recognising certain risks.

These include such things as:

• beware the expert: consult the expert by all means, but don’t rest too heavily on past experience in a time of complex, accelerating change;
• success is dangerous: those who have been successful know that they know. They may not know what they don’t know;
• open the box: it is futile to address single issues in isolation when we are living and working in a richly interconnected world; 
• challenge the assumptions: it is becoming more and more urgent for this generation to challenge the inherited mindsets and assumptions of today’s western industrial economies.

“Experienced futurists are aware of all these ‘dragons’ and more. They also have tools to help a disparate group of people to work together productively in these complex, dynamic areas,” said Charles Brass. “So while we applaud the government’s plan to bring in 100 experts in each field, we would suggest that each group be balanced with people from other fields to leaven and even challenge the discussion.

"We also emphasise the importance of being able to live with uncertainty. Many of today’s leaders have achieved success through their certainty, which is then reinforced by success.

 "Clearly some good thinking has gone into preparation of the agenda for the conference. We hope that an effort will be made to link these different areas and see them as part of the whole system that is our society. And while we welcome attention to so many important topics, we warn against simply addressing the issues that appear on the surface without drilling down into the systemic reasons for these issues, and the mental models and worldviews that in turn create the systems that create the problems.

“There’s not much point in fixing a parking problem if the underlying issue is public transport, and not much point in fixing that if the underlying issue is the way we design our communities... and so on. Fortunately there are indications that the Government has considered some of these issues – with its plan to invite wide community participation, for example."

Mr Brass said that growing interest in futures work indicates that the community, including organizations, is becoming more aware of the future and our duty to future generations.  That may be, in part, because of the unavoidable issue of global warming.

“Global warming is yet another demonstration that if we want to change the future – and research suggests that most of us do – it’s a whole lot easier to do it before it happens,” he said. “More and more companies, governments and other organizations are now recognising this fact and seeking our help.”

In spite of this advice, however, Charles Brass is extremely positive about the potential of this conference, and many exciting possibilities for Australia’s future to 2020 and beyond.

“This country occupies a unique position in time and space, and with thoughtful use of its resources, could lead the way for the world to embrace a healthier, happier and more sustainable future,” he said. “One of those resources is a highly qualified, credible and effective community of professional futurists. Australia is recognised among futurists worldwide for its leadership in this area.”